The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg has some interesting analysis of this year’s Academy Awards and how the two biggest shocks happened. Those shocks? Green Book winning Best Picture and Olivia Colman winning Best Actress. In Colman’s defense – as I said on Oscar night – she was legitimately brilliant in The Favourite and she would have been the favorite in any other year where she wasn’t competing against a living legend of stage and screen, Glenn Close, who has yet to ever win an Oscar. Basically, Feinberg’s explanation for how Colman pulled off that coup is that Fox Searchlight ran a brilliant Oscar campaign and that people actually SAW The Favourite and they didn’t see The Wife:

The biggest shocker of the night, which will be remembered as one of the biggest shockers of all time, was the best actress upset of The Wife’s Glenn Close by The Favourite’s Olivia Colman, even after Close won Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe and SAG awards. No other actress — and only two actors, Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind and Eddie Murphy for 2006?s Dreamgirls — has ever won all three of those precursors and then lost at the Oscars. Going into the night, the 71-year-old was already the most Oscar-nominated living performer, male or female, without a win, and now extends that undesirable record by losing for the seventh time.

How did this happen? It’s impossible to say for sure, of course, but it likely has to do with the number of Academy members who actually saw Close’s film versus Colman’s. Colman’s The Favourite, which was distributed by Fox Searchlight (which never gets enough credit for its campaign prowess), was nominated for 10 Oscars (tied with Roma for most), including best picture. That meant most voters made it a priority to check it out — and, indeed, Colman is extraordinary in it. The Wife, on the other hand, was a much lower-profile film; it received no nominations other than Close’s, and therefore was a lower priority for voters as they budgeted their time.

[From The Hollywood Reporter]

I understand that The Wife didn’t get a big splashy wide release, but… neither did The Favourite. The Favourite was pretty much art-house fare in most places in America and around the world. Besides that, all of the Oscar voters GET SCREENERS. They literally just have to pop in the DVD or attend one of a million Oscar screenings throughout the season. There’s no excuse for arguing “well, I just didn’t see it” from Oscar voters. Also: Glenn is legitimately wonderful in The Wife. I compared her performance to Julianne Moore’s (ultimately Oscar-winning) turn in Still Alice too. I thought that would be the model for Glenn’s Oscar campaign.

As for “why Green Book won,” Feinberg really doesn’t have any answers other than “Oscar voters don’t pay attention to Film Twitter” and this theory about how votes are cast for Best Picture:

At the post-show Governors Ball, the win for Green Book — which premiered and won the audience award at September’s Toronto International Film Festival, and breaks the Telluride Film Festival’s eight-year streak of screening the eventual best picture winner — was heavily debated. In particular, the impact of the divisive “preferential ballot” that the Academy employs only for the best picture category was a focus of conversation. Did Green Book win because it was most voters’ second- or third-favorite nominee, or would it have won on a popular ballot, too? One studio chief who asked to remain nameless told me that he is totally convinced it would have prevailed under either format.

But supporters of Roma, the Netflix film that was the odds-on favorite to win best picture, tended to feel differently. They point to the fact that in five of the 10 years since the preferential ballot was implemented (concurrent with the expansion of the best picture Oscar category beyond a cap of five nominees), the best picture and best director Oscars have gone to different films, a far higher rate than ever before. If one agrees with the widespread assumption that most people vote for the same film for best picture and best director, then one can see why it would be frustrating that a plurality is enough to win best director, but an outright majority is required to win best picture, something that can only be achieved, in a year without a runaway frontrunner, when lower-ranked films then come into play.

[From The Hollywood Reporter]

So maybe it’s just about the ballot and the WAY people vote for Best Picture and how those votes are counted? Eh. I think the answer to the “why did Green Book win” conundrum is a lot simpler: older white Oscar voters were comforted by the white savior narrative and the cheeseball performance of the n-word spouting Viggo Mortsensen. I’m also okay with the theory that The Favorite, Black Panther, Roma and BlacKkKlansman ended up splitting a lot of votes – there wasn’t one consensus “woke” choice, there were several, and that’s how Green Book snuck in.

Photos courtesy of WENN.

I hope everyone is fine with me not discussing the most lurid and disturbing parts of this R. Kelly story. I don’t have the stomach for it, but please have faith in the fact that I 100% support R. Kelly’s victims and I believe them entirely. I believe he’s a monster, a pedophile and a rapist. I believe he’s abused countless women and girls. But I also believe that the less we talk about the video evidence and the details of the abuse and rapes, the better we will be as a society.

On Friday, R. Kelly was charged with ten counts of aggravated criminal sexual abuse. Nine of the ten counts involved Kelly’s assault of minors from the ages of 13 to 16. There are four victims being represented with these charges, but obviously, there are countless other women and girls who have not yet had the chance to seek justice in a court. Later that day, last Friday, Kelly turned himself into to Chicago authorities. He stayed in jail all weekend and he was only able to post bond and be released Monday afternoon:

R. Kelly is a free man again — it was total pandemonium as he walked out of jail — and he’ll have to pay off a 6-figure child support tab almost immediately if he wants to avoid getting locked up again. Kelly’s $100k bond — 10% of his $1 million bail — was finally posted Monday after he appeared in court and entered a not guilty to plea to all 10 counts of aggravated sexual abuse. As he walked out of jail, wearing his blue down coat, Kelly was swarmed by photogs and reporters.

Although Kelly’s out, he’s staring down another deadline. TMZ broke the story … he has to pay about $160k in back child support to his ex-wife, Drea Kelly, by March 6. If he doesn’t, it’s right back to County lockup. The Kelly sources tell us he plans to make arrangements to pay the child support by next week, so he can focus on his criminal defense … and avoid jail.

[From TMZ]

The fact that all of this is going down in Cook County (Chicago) and the fact that Michael Avenatti – Stormy Daniels’ now-disgraced lawyer – is part of the campaign against Kelly is making me nervous. I hope the prosecution has all of their legal ducks in a row and this doesn’t become The Avenatti Show, just like I hope that the Chicago legal system can handle this whole thing. That being said, the dam broke. Even if this case falls apart, I would be willing to bet that they’ll get “another bite of the apple.”

Photos courtesy of Backgrid.

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No offense, but I think one of the dumbest things to come out of A Star Is Born’s Oscar campaign is that now people – most of them younger peeps – are shipping Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga in real life. First of all, they barely had ANY chemistry in the movie. The first part of their promotional tour was hampered by rumors that they were barely speaking to each other. They did a good job of keeping up appearances – like total pros – once the campaign got underway. At this point, I think they like and respect each other. I think Bradley is very happy and proud of Gaga for winning Best Song. They obviously put in a lot of work to make their live performance amazing on-stage at the Oscars – clearly, because they had more chemistry on stage than they did in the entire film. None of that amounts to “Gaga and B-Coop are secretly together and Irina Shayk is gonna shank an orange trollop.” So, I’ve established that I do not believe they’re together in any way. But was their loved-up performance bad form? According to Mel B, it was:

Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper‘s performance of A Star Is Born‘s signature tune “Shallow” at Sunday’s Oscars may have delighted fans watching at home, but the electrifying chemistry between the two stars left Mel B unsettled. The Spice Girls singer, 43, criticized Gaga and Cooper during Good Morning Britain‘s Academy Awards telecast, explaining that she couldn’t help but think about Cooper’s girlfriend, Irina Shayk, the whole time.

Shayk, 33 — mother to Cooper’s 1½-year-old daughter Lea De Seine — was sitting in the front row of the Dolby Theatre, steps away from where Cooper, 44, and Gaga, 32, sang their show-stealing duet. The two costars and on-screen lovers shared a piano bench at the number’s conclusion, singing a stripped-down take on the track cheek-to-cheek before affectionately gazing into each other’s eyes, with Cooper wrapping his arm around Gaga’s waist.

“I felt so uncomfortable for Bradley’s girlfriend, oh my gosh,” Mel B recalled of the moment, according to video captured by The Sun. Agreeing that the duo had “the look of love,” Mel B hoped that the energy between Cooper and Gaga — who recently split from fiancé Christian Carino, her rep confirmed to PEOPLE exclusively on Tuesday — was just for show.

“I would like to think it was part of the whole performance, because there’s a women’s code and hopefully that’s not… hopefully it’s only professional,” she said.

[From People]

Yeah, trust that it is completely professional. Trust that they were truly only doing that for the cameras and for the Oscar campaign and all of that. As I said on Sunday night, I thought their performance was beautiful and beautifully staged in that one long take with no cutaways. I would think that Irina is a confident and intelligent enough woman to understand that her actor-director boyfriend was doing it for the Oscars, not because he was secretly in love with Gaga or whatever.

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Photos courtesy of Getty, WENN.

For the Duke and Duchess of Sussex’s final night in Morocco, they attended a private dinner with the King Mohammed VI of Morocco at the royal residence in Rabat. For this dinner, Meghan chose a really pretty and feminine Carolina Herrera gown in a periwinkle blue, with a delicate pattern. The gown is chiffon, and it’s billowy and flowy on Meghan’s pregnant figure. The Daily Mail dutifully reported on the cost of the “custom” piece – duh, she’s pregnant, of course this stuff has to be customized – with a figure of £3,222. Meghan wore her hair back in a sleek bun – I would have loved to see some bigger earrings here, but oh well.

The meeting and dinner seemed to go well, and here’s something that I’ve been noticing more and more in photos – Harry has grown in confidence in these kinds of situations, where he’s meeting diplomats and kings and queens and such. Harry’s always been comfortable when he’s around dogs, kids and soldiers. But he’s really grown into a soft-power diplomatic asset for the crown now that he’s married to Meghan. Meghan is also a tremendous asset to the crown, if the courtiers will let the woman breathe.

Speaking of assets to the crown and the crown itself, the Queen will be hosting a reception next week to mark the 50th anniversary of Prince Charles’ investiture as the Prince of Wales. The 50th anniversary is this year, on July 1st, and much like Charles’ birthday celebrations, I suspect there will be many events to mark the anniversary. The Duke and Duchess of Sussex will be in attendance at the Buckingham Palace reception, as will the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge. It should be a good time to watch the body language, especially between the two brothers and their father.

King Mohammed seemed quite taken with Meghan, if these photos are any indication.

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Photos courtesy of WENN, Getty.

For my money, Gabrielle Union was one of the best-dressed women on Oscar night, and she didn’t even attend the Oscars. Gabrielle just did the parties. She wore this absolutely stunning Valentino gown in a reddish pumpkin shade which 100% works because of her skin, body and hair. Gabrielle recently chopped her hair off and OMG does this choppy cut look cute. Hands down, one of my favorite looks.

I stan Liberty Ross. She dumped a cheating husband and landed a billionaire. She and Jimmy Iovine attend the VF party every year. Love her.

Tiffany Haddish in Rami Kadi. This is a glorious mess and she comes close to making it work.

Selma Blair in Ralph & Russo, walking her first big red carpet since her MS diagnosis. She walked with a cane and she got quite emotional on the carpet. Great dress!

Lupita Nyong’o in Oscar De La Renta -weirdly, I don’t think she actually attended the Oscars, she just did the afterparties? Which is fine, I guess. Her dress was cute!

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Photos courtesy of Backgrid, Getty, WENN.

Here are more photos from the Vanity Fair Oscar party. Kendall Jenner was the only one of the Kardashian-Jenners to attend any Oscar events (although Caitlyn Jenner turned up). Kendall wanted attention, and honestly, this is such an old school move. It used to be that every random model would turn up to the VF Oscar party with everything hanging out. This year, Kendall was one of the few women doing it. Her Rami Kadi dress was basically a sliver of fabric draped over her crotch, and whenever Kendall moved or walked, the fabric would sway and Kendall would expose herself to everyone. So, there you go.

Amy Adams has never looked more like Isla Fisher than right here, in this Alexandre Vauthier, with this hair.

Ashley Olsen just low-key turned up to the VF party with no fuss. I don’t even think she had a date? She just came to party.

Sophie Turner in Louis Vuitton,with Joe Jonas. I keep hoping this relationship will peter out, but I guess not. Sophie looks cute though.

Chloë Grace Moretz also wore Louis Vuitton. LV did some decent party dresses, right?

Laura Harrier also got an LV party dress – this one is too cocktaily for my taste, although her body is crazy.

Photos courtesy of Backgrid, WENN.

I thought Jennifer Lopez looked especially glum and over-it at the Oscars, but she seemed to perk up slightly for the Vanity Fair Oscar party. She went with Alex Rodriguez, who may or may not be plucking her last nerve. Mostly, I think Jennifer was happy to have better makeup for the afterparties – her styling at the Oscars was not great. She wore these peacock vibing Zuhair Murad dress. I love the colors but hate the design.

Kacey Musgraves in Versace. Kacey really went to LA to do the whole Oscar experience. I can’t hate on her hustle – maybe Kacey is the next Blake Shelton, some country crossover who becomes a huge multi-platform name. She’s certainly trying. Anyway, I actually sort of like this Versace – it’s a great party dress.

KiKi Layne also chose Versace for her party dress. This doesn’t look comfortable, nor is it actually that cute?

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Emily Ratajkowski in Brock Collection. I’m shocked that all of her bits and pieces aren’t hanging out. I’m also shocked that her shady husband isn’t hanging on her. Huh.

Taraji Henson in Roland Mouret, with her fiance. I really dislike the dress, but her man is handsome.

Photos courtesy of Backgrid, Getty, WENN.

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Elie Saab dresses so many women for red carpets, and I usually really like their looks. They’re princessy, feminine and lovely. At this year’s Oscars they dressed Michelle Yeoh, Jennifer Hudson and Julia Roberts. At the Vanity Fair Oscar party there were at least four more women in Elie Saab, to varying results. First let’s start with Hailee Steinfeld. This is a pink muppet ostrich floof of a dress with gold splotches but she looks like she’s having fun for it. Still look at her pointy lucite heels.

Cobie Smulders fared better in her sparkly sea green Elie Saab and I like how formfitting it is, but the bottom is sheer-ish and you can see granny panties underneath.

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Newlywed Priyanka Chopra had on a black princess dress with a deep v-neck tuxedo top and big tulle skirt dotted with sequins. This is too many dresses at once and again the skirt is see through. That’s not necessary.

Michelle Yeoh changed into a second Elie Saab last night, I loved the first dress she wore as a presenter. The dress she chose for the party was a bit tacky with gold leaf appliques and a tulle skirt. Also, why does that dress need a velvet collar? She deserves better but at least she didn’t wear this to the ceremony.

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Heidi Klum does not deserve better, she is the epitome of tacky, and her Elie Saab dress was worse than Hailee’s. It’s got ostrich poof sleeves, an ostrich skirt, the top has her bits strategically covered by silver and black embroidered crap and there’s a train with more of that junk on it. Heidi knows and she is embracing it.

photos credit: WENN and Getty